This weekend’s Belgian GP marks the end of the summer break for the 2022 F1 season. The first half of the season has been somewhat fun with some good races. Even the F1 Monaco GP was good this time around. There is, however, certainly a bit of disappointment around the championship fight as Ferrari has messed up frequently but the races have surely been great.
Heading into the second half of the season, Max Verstappen enjoys an 80-point lead over Charles Leclerc. Red Bull, on the other hand, has a 97-point lead over Ferrari. Mercedes has started to make improvements and is on a 6-race podium streak.
Speaking of the midfield, the domino effect that started with Sebastian Vettel’s retirement has thrown a curveball for McLaren and Alpine. It is still not clear which team Oscar Piastri will drive for and what the further repercussions will be. Having said that, the second half of the season has got some interesting storylines that should keep F1 fans occupied.
So, before the second half of the season begins, we thought it prudent to put our “F1 Fan” hats on, analyze, and make some BOLD predictions. These are not going to be your everyday predictions where we pick who will win the championships (because let’s be fair, it looks one-sided for now). We take risks, we make outlandish predictions and we see what sticks! So without further ado, let’s jump straight to it.
#5 Lewis Hamilton wins a race this season
Lewis Hamilton has finished on the podium in the last 5 races. In the last 2 races, he has finished P2, but if we are fair, a chunk of this has been due to Ferrari and Red Bull messing things up. In Hungary, it was Ferrari’s strategic disaster, in the race prior in France, it was Charles Leclerc crashing out, and so on.
Mercedes has shown improvement but the results can be attributed to both Lewis Hamilton’s driving and the other teams’ shortcomings. There is an expectation that the new technical directive (for the plank designs), which will be in play from the 2022 F1 Belgian GP, is going to bring Mercedes closer. Can we bank on something like that? Probably not.
One thing we can bank on, however, is Hamilton being one of the best drivers on the grid and Mercedes not making mistakes. For the second half of the season, we’re predicting Hamilton to sneak through with at least one race win when everything comes together. It could either be through car performance or simply through Red Bull and Ferrari tripping over themselves in a race.
#4 Alpine finishes the season 4th in the F1 constructors’ championship
Alpine is in a close battle with McLaren in the constructors’ championship. Heading to the 2022 F1 Belgian GP, the former holds a 4-point advantage over the latter. Alpine is also reeling from the humiliation of two drivers publicly rejecting them during the summer break.
One of them is the youngster Oscar Piastri, who was groomed by the team. The other, Fernando Alonso, is the team’s current racing driver who did not even bother to inform it that he had signed with Aston Martin.
McLaren, on the other hand, has its own mess. Daniel Ricciardo is underperforming and will be replaced next season. This season, however, there is still a championship left to compete for and the Australian could compromise McLaren’s P4 push.
In this battle between McLaren and Alpine, we’re picking the latter to secure P4. This is because the cars are somewhat similar in terms of performance, making driver pairing the key difference. Currently, the Fernando Alonso-Esteban Ocon combo is stronger than the Lando Norris-Daniel Ricciardo combo.
#3 Ferrari wants to finish behind Mercedes in the constructors’ championship
Currently, Ferrari is 97 points behind Red Bull in the championship. Simultaneously, its advantage over Mercedes is only 30 points now. The gap was 65 points after the 2022 F1 Monaco GP and since then there has been a systematic reduction in the gap in every race.
The reason, however, is not Ferrari losing out in terms of performance. On the contrary, it had a very strong car all season. The problem is the lack of strategic acumen in the Italian outfit. The team has made one strategic blunder after another and has seen Charles Leclerc lose multiple race wins this season.
In the second half of the season, Lewis Hamilton will have a challenger that is closer to the speed of the Ferrari drivers. Can we expect Mercedes, a team that doesn’t make mistakes, does not suffer from reliability issues, and has a better driver line-up (Russell-Hamilton combo is better than Sainz-Leclerc) overhaul Ferrari? In our view, this is an inevitability! By the end of the season, Mercedes expect to overhaul Ferrari and finish second in the constructors’ championship.
#2 The Alpines will bump into each other on the track
Fernando Alonso’s demeanor and the way Alpine has received communication about him leaving the team have revealed a lot. It showed that the Spaniard was not entirely happy with the team’s environment. A more recent example was Alonso getting somewhat rattled by teammate Esteban Ocon’s defense at the start of the race in Hungary.
This, however, was not the first time that the French driver was very aggressive in his defense against Alonso. The battle between Ocon and Alonso at the F1 Saudi Arabian GP earlier this season comes to mind where the former driver did not want to yield to his teammate at any stage.
Alonso has been somewhat circumspect earlier in the season but in the second half, the gloves are off. He is leaving the team at the end of the season so the Spaniard is expected to not give an inch to his teammate when it comes to wheel- to-wheel battles.
In our view, given how close both the drivers are to each other on pace, expect the two drivers to have a coming together in at least one of the races that leads to a compromised result for both of them.
#1 Daniel Ricciardo ends up without a seat for the 2023 F1 season
Daniel Ricciardo will not be driving for McLaren in the 2023 F1 season. Once the team made the announcement, it left the Australian with just two viable options – Alpine and Haas. According to reports, Ricciardo has communicated with both teams. A lack of movement in either option, however, also shows a lack of conviction.
In our view, there will be another domino effect that will soon be in motion. It will start with the Red Bull-Porsche partnership announcement. Next would be Alpine opening the door for Pierre Gasly.
Once Gasly moves to Alpine, Porsche’s insistence on having a German driver would bring Mick Schumacher to AlphaTauri alongside Yuki Tsunoda as Red Bull tests the German for its senior team in the future.
In all of this, the only option left for Daniel Ricciardo is Haas. The team has shown progress this season, but at the end of the day, it is still 7th in the championship standings. Not only that, the team has struggled for money all season and it would be a step too far to expect the team to sustain its form beyond this season. In all likelihood, Haas is not the team that the Australian would want to move to, especially with the possibility of ending up at the back of the grid.
Hence, we are predicting that in this F1 drivers’ musical chair, Daniel Ricciardo will find himself without a seat and off the grid for the 2023 F1 season.
Coming soon!
